Over the last few weeks, the Donald Trump administration has been a massive confusion in the labor market to freeze the federal aid and dismiss tens of thousands of federal workers. It is a terrible thing of administrative orders, threats of trade wars, starting of mass deportation, and volatility of stock markets.
But on Friday Labor statistics Investors and market watchers announced in January that they considered a “positive” job report. The blocked my head.
One explanation is that economic data is seen back. The report on Friday reflects the labor market in January before the opponent’s confusion begins. Nevertheless Hundreds of thousands Apply for unemployment benefits from California residents.
Instead, the most Recent labor data The unemployment rate is low at 4%and steadily looks steadily. In addition, job growth is still moving at a healthy speed.
Perhaps official labor data is not a narrator who can trust what’s actually happening or what’s going to come forward.
Lisa Countryman-QuirozThe CEO of JVS Bay Area, a non -profit organization for labor development, said that there is no doubt that the new administration’s actions will cause instability for both workers and employees, and the results will come across the industry by 2025.
Potentially volatile job market
The job seeking market indicators paint a wide range of paintings and reflect the past trends, but do not accurately reflect the economic reality of other regions, populations or industries.
As a person who writes about the relationship between labor data, housing markets, and federal preparation systems, I was not surprised to see economists positively rotating Friday’s labor report. According to news reports, the economy is “elasticity” and “strong” and the job seeking market is “no better.”
But if you ask an ordinary person to find a stable and conservatives, you can get a very different answer. In 2024, Pathrise Job Market data data was found to be an average by job seekers. 8 months And the application to land 294 jobs.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the economy feels like free stigma. State Department’s immediate order 90 days suspended for foreign aidMany government contractors and global institutions who won Elon Musk struggled to operate or pay workers. Meanwhile, some 65,000 Federal workers accepted the proposal to resign in exchange for wages by September 30th. The White House has 200,000 workers PurchaseRecently, it was temporarily suspended by a federal judge.
Moreover, Trump 1 out of 20Architecture, agriculture and hospitality are much greater. Forcibly eliminating large amounts of workers who donated billions of dollars on state and federal taxes can increase job vacancies, labor costs with low wages, and interruption and inflation.
“The president has changed the policy direction several times,” said Gene Ludwig, a former composer and founder of the currency. LUDWIG Institute for Excinded Economic Prosperity.
Ludwig said, “It’s too much to measure his policy of employment.”
Interest rates will not come later.
Economic data, such as Friday’s job report, also affects major financial decisions, such as interest rate adjustments. The Federal Reserve Bank must maintain a balance between inflation and unemployment and investigates official statistics to determine the following movement.
First of all, the central bank wants to see the inflation slow before the interest rate is reduced. But given the threat of tariffs that are expected to raise prices, this is not soon known.
Second, the Fed is looking for signs of weaknesses in the labor market. The Fed says that the unemployment level does not want to jump to the economic downturn, but the “healthy” labor market can afford the central banks with a high economy.
The probability Already low To reduce interest rates at the next meeting in March. But now it is clearer that the central bank will delay the rate cut by May or June. It may take a few months to get a clear picture of how administrative policies affect the cost of the job market, consumer prices and borrowings.
“The economic slowdown will increase the possibility of cuts, especially the unemployment rate,” he said. GregheimBrown Harris Stevens’s chief economist.
In the meantime, we must solve it for another definition of constructing a positive job report.
Countryman-Quiroz said, “The strong labor market relies on expanding opportunities for job seekers and does not limit it.”
