ROME, Aug 23 (IPS) – Bangladesh’s student movement demanding reforms to the public sector job quota system was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The Awami League (AL) government led by Sheikh Hasina, which had been in power since 2008, collapsed on August 5, 2024. Fifteen years of authoritarian rule simply melted away as Sheikh Hasina fled to India and left the country in disarray.
She developed a personality cult around her father, Sheikh Mujib Rahman, who led the country to independence in 1971 and was brutally murdered on August 15, 1975. The personality cult was so perverse that the country’s liberation was attributed solely to Sheikh Mujib, while all other valiant men of the liberation war and her party were ignored. Everything important that happened in the country was attributed solely to his wisdom and foresight and was often named after him. Every institution, including schools across the country and embassies around the world, was required to have a “Mujib Corner” where only his picture and books about him were displayed.
However, no party, including the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has succeeded in instigating an uprising against Hasina’s regime. This was partly due to her ability to present the AL and her government as the sole guarantor of independence, sovereignty and secularism. Everyone else was accused of being anti-liberation, communal and motivated by a desire to turn the country into a hotbed of Islamic extremism. The BNP has also been accused of crime and corruption while in power. The BNP’s founder has been linked to the brutal murder of Sheikh Mujib and her family, and the BNP’s current leader is accused of orchestrating a grenade attack on an AL rally on 21 August 2004 that killed Sheikh Hasina. Hasina survived the attack, but 24 people were killed and about 200 were injured.
Why did the student movement succeed?
Like most historical events, there were several factors, but the most important ones were (i) the students were prepared to die and (ii) the military showed patriotism and wisdom by refusing to kill. The students came from all walks of life, regardless of party affiliation or economic background. Therefore, attempts to brand them as anti-liberationists were unsuccessful. The military refused to kill in order to protect the dictatorial ruler. Bangladeshis have always overthrown dictators.
Why the students were prepared to die while the military refused to kill is an important question that requires analysis, but the most important question now is, ‘What do we do next?’ and ‘Where do we go now?’
What’s next for Bangladesh?
The students supported the formation of an interim government led by Dr. Younus, founder of the Grameen Bank and Nobel laureate, comprised of leading intellectuals, academics, elite liberal pundits and civil society actors who had been silenced and harassed during Hasina’s 15-year rule.
But many remain skeptical. Many fear a short-term breakdown in law and order and communal unrest that could lead to another dictatorial rule. Neighboring India, which supported Hasina’s government, is concerned about the rights of Bangladesh’s minorities, but has shown little concern for India’s minorities in recent times.
Political and geopolitical analysts are busy analyzing the geopolitical implications and the role of key figures in mobilizing students to overthrow Hasina, raising questions about who engineered the regime change.
Fortunately for Bangladesh and Bangladeshis, things can only get better. Short-term fears have not been realized. Aside from a few localized incidents, there has been no major breakdown in law and order or repression of minorities. In the long run, things can only get better. It is highly unlikely that another leader will emerge who has a reason to demonstrate “moral sovereignty,” to disdain political discourse, and to project a cult of personality. These are the basic ingredients of a dictatorship.
Hasina embodies many of the elements that are inherently related to her nature. It is unlikely that another person with a similar background will emerge again. She started out as a champion of democracy, seeking to overthrow the military rule that followed her father’s murder, and then became a champion of justice by seeking justice for her father’s murder. But over time, she became a dictator and a vengeful leader. Even if the AL succeeds in regrouping and coming to power, it must be pluralistic and not identify solely with Sheikh Mujib. All the party’s loyal supporters must be recognized, and only by recognizing the party’s forgotten popular figures can it rise again.
In the context of the larger geopolitical play of the bigger powers, it may be important, but it cannot take away the fact that the majority of people are in favor of change and are happy about it. It could be similar to the independence in 1971. India helped Bangladesh gain independence because of its own geopolitical and strategic goals, but it did not diminish the taste of independence. If the desires of the Bangladeshis are aligned with the goals of others, then so be it. It is a win-win for both sides.
In the end, Bangladesh will emerge with a strong foundation for safeguarding democratic institutions such as an independent judiciary, a functioning parliamentary system with an effective opposition, a vibrant media and civil society organizations. It will be a country that recognizes the collective conscience of its leading citizens and intellectuals and establishes good governance and social justice. The economy may experience some fluctuations due to financial sector and export market difficulties, but a strong agricultural sector, a vibrant domestic real estate market and remittances will support the economy.
The author is a former United Nations staff member and served as Director of Policy Support for Asia and the Pacific at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal Source: Inter Press Service
