Intense solar flares (sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the sun) can emit dangerous levels of energy strong enough to reach Earth’s atmosphere. But predicting solar flares isn’t as simple as predicting a sunny day.
A research team co-led by solar physicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. has identified types of solar activity in the solar atmosphere that can signal solar flares. Their research is detailed in the December 6 issue. study published in Astrophysical Journal Letters The study, presented Jan. 15 at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society, has important implications for efforts to keep astronauts and space assets safe.
In fact, predicting solar flares is critical to protecting both people and technology from the sun’s unstable outbursts. Solar flares can disrupt satellite communications, GPS systems, Earth’s power grid, and even expose astronauts and spacecraft to dangerous levels of radiation. A reliable early warning system would therefore be a welcome tool for mitigating the risks of space weather.
Using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, Mason and her colleagues analyzed flickering in the coronal loop, an arcuate structure in the sun’s outer atmosphere known as the corona, that precedes 50 intense solar flares. Coronal loops exist identically to the magnetically active regions of the Sun that cause solar flares. NASA statement. The researchers observed that the brightness of the coronal loop in the extreme ultraviolet varies much more in the hours before a large flare occurs nearby than does the coronal loop over a non-flare region.
“We found that some of the extreme ultraviolet light above the active region blinked erratically in the hours leading up to the solar flare,” Mason explained in a statement. “These results are critical to understanding flares and could improve our ability to predict hazardous space weather.”
Researchers suggest that observing changes in the ultraviolet brightness of coronal loops could predict future solar flares two to six hours in advance with an accuracy of 60 to 80 percent, which, if proven true, would be more accurate than previously attempted prediction methods.
“The Sun’s corona is a dynamic environment, and each solar flare is like a snowflake. Every single flare is unique,” said Kara Kniezewski of the U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology, who co-led the study. “We found that searching for periods of ‘chaotic’ behavior in coronal loop emissions rather than specific trends provides a much more consistent metric.”
Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who also worked on the study, envisions creating “well-tested and, ideally, simpler astronauts.” [solar flare] “It is an indicator that is ready to make the leap from research to operations.” The researchers also suggested that the stronger the flare, the earlier the blinking peak would appear, but acknowledged that further analysis would be needed to confirm this possible aspect.
Scientists have been trying to predict solar flares for decades. If recent research proves true, the blinking corona loop could essentially function like a blinking warning beacon for people and technology at risk.
