The S & P 500 decreased 5.9 % every year. At the same time, Nasdaq has decreased by more than 10 %.
Should I buy dip? Should I sell bounce?
The answer to these questions depends on whether you trust the technology indicators or foundations of the stock market. Nevertheless, panic and uncertainty are spreading all over the United States.
There is a perception that economic growth retreats, consumer prices are rising, and jobs are disappearing. There is also an observation that President Trump’s policy is worsening.
Most people agree that the federal government is too big and lacking in control. They know that fraud and waste are widespread. They understand that a $ 2 trillion deficit per year is not sustainable. And the growth of government debt is a complete disaster.
They also want to modify these failures without any problems. On the day Trump took office, he had an injustice that he could clean all the waste like magic, reduce the size of the government, and balance the budget without the painful consequences of the budget. The perception is shattered.
The Trump administration has also decided to pursue the first policy of the United States so far. These policies are very destructive. Customs and tariff threats cause uncertainty.
How will the ‘off -off’ trade war affect the price of imported products? How does price increase affect influence and investments?
In addition, Trump and his cohort do not care if the MAGA policy causes a stock market collision or recession. In fact, the Minister of Finance, Scott Bessent, believes that the economy needs to be reset after several years of growth due to federal expenses and asset prices. He said recently CNBC:
“There is adjustment. We will see if there is pain. ”
This week’s stock market investors felt a small pinch. And they didn’t like it.
Unofficial recession
Investors need to adjust their resistance to pain because the economy adapts to Trump 2.0 and overrated stocks look less promising. How loud does it scream when a creaky sound is made due to a 10 % reduction in Nasdaq?
In the same CNBC interview, Bessent made it clear. “There is no Trump.” With these words, he ended up an implicit agreement with Wall Street, which was confirmed since 1987. In the panic era, the Federal Reserve has deployed a high floor (ie, foot option), depending on how much the stock market can fall.
There is also evidence that the economy is slowing while the stock is retreating. Construction expenditure, international and wholesale trade, automotive sales and ISM manufacturing and service index are all on fades. All of these data points signal a reduced economy.
In the first quarter of 2025, the total domestic production will not be announced in the economic analysts by April 30. However, the latest estimates of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank gdpnow Forecast, show minus 2.4 in the first quarter of the GDP ratio.
But Trump keeps his eyes away from it. “I can’t see the recession at all.” that Sayed Tuesday.
Trump is correct if you want technology. Until the second quarter of the second quarter of the voice GDP, the recession is generally not formally confirmed. Therefore, when the National Economic Research Bureau made an official call, the economy had already been in recession for more than six months.
In the meantime, the US economy is retreating according to its estimates.
Deer
Of course, the recession is all part of a healthy economy. They are the times when mistakes are modified. A place where wrong capital changes direction. A place where workers are pushed for more productive employment. And where a solid foundation to build new growth.
Nevertheless, these benefits do not make the recession easier. When you lose your job, you miss a mortgage payment and you are not a joke if you Repossed your car.
Moreover, the impact of the economic downturn varies from individual to small businesses and companies. As the economy slows down, they all take a chunk. And if the shrinkage is deep enough and sufficient debt is unemployed, the entire financial system can be dangerous.
Recall the collapse of 2008-09 in residential mortgages. Before it ended, Lehman Brothers, a bank operated after the inter -Korean war, was erased from the Earth’s face.
In fact, the recession is difficult. But especially hard to make the recession is the case when the consumer price is expanding.
For example, if the economy signs a contract while the consumer price inflation increases, the result is candy. In this scenario, the unemployment rate and the unhappy index, the CPI, pass through the roof. It is ruthless to lose jobs while paying higher prices for basic products every month.
Alas, stagflation is here. This week, the Labor Statistics Bureau issued a CPI report. According to BLS, the CPI has increased. 2.8 % February for the last 12 months.
Perhaps this is better than June 2022 when the CPI reached 9.1 %. But a few years ago, the CPI’s highest healing has a combination of 2.8 %of CPIs.
The truth must be superior
According to all honest explanations, the idea that consumer price inflation joins is generally false. The price is still rising. They may not go up as soon as three years ago. But they are still going up.
More importantly, every year price rise is cumulative and complex. The consumer price measured by the CPI over the past five years is 23 % -319.082 in February 2025 from 258.115 in March 2020.
Therefore, adding 2.8 %to the index today has a combination effect that is greater than 2.8 %. And this is based on the government’s own data. Everyone knows that price inflation was much larger than reported during this period.
Therefore, the disadvantage of what is happening is as follows.
The economy went into the recession. People are losing their jobs. Trade is slowing. Consumer prices are rising. Stocks retreat. And HOUTHI ‘S is resuming the attack on the ships sailing through Yemen in the Red Sea when starting with the Suez Canal.
In any way, these things will make a way out. Adjustment must occur. They cannot stop.
But it is not all destiny and depression. The spring of the northern hemisphere takes less than a week. Breeds songbirds, green leaves, warm weather, longer sunlight and major league baseball.
So, the true and honest money, gold, is $ 3,000 per ounce.
After all, the truth will be dominant.
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thank you,
Mn Gordon
For economic prism
Returning from the truth will dominate as an economic prism.
