By Ellis Appel (The Center Square)
In several key battleground states, former President Donald Trump is in a better position to win this election than he was in 2020, when he lost to Joe Biden.
In six of the seven states that are in the red, Trump’s polling average is better than it was four years ago. The 93 electoral votes are at stake in Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).
Biden won six of these states in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina, where he won the Electoral College by a margin of 306 to 232.
The 538 Project’s polling information is included in the following weekly summaries:
Michigan
Michigan is a good example of this trend.
As of 2020, Biden leads Trump by about 8 points. This year, Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump by just 1.8 points, within the margin of error.
Harris did better in the polls than Biden when they competed in June and July. Michigan has a trifecta of Democratic states for governor and majorities in both houses of Congress.
Biden was leading Trump by 7.9 points in polls ahead of Election Day. He later won by just 2.8 points.
Harris’s 5-point lead over Biden this year could be decisive.
Arizona
Arizona is following a very similar trend to Michigan.
In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 4.8%. Compared to Trump’s current lead of nearly 1% in the state, polls show Trump up about 6% from his 2020 average.
Harris still ranks within the margin of error in most polls, usually around 3 to 4 percentage points.
Biden was ahead in the polls by 2.6 points on Election Day and won by 11,000 votes, or 0.3 points.
Georgia
In Georgia, Trump is ahead of Harris by 0.4 percentage points, down from 1.4 percentage points four years ago.
In 2020, Biden started to lead Trump on October 1. On Election Day, he was ahead of Trump by 1.2%. The margin of victory was only about 11,000 votes, or 0.2%.
Since 1980, only twice has a Republican presidential candidate lost in Georgia.
Nevada
Harris is ahead of Trump by 0.5 points in Nevada, but is 5 points behind Biden’s lead in the same time period. Trump hasn’t been ahead in the polls in the past three months.
This election season, Trump has been leading in several polls since early August.
In 2020, Biden was polled 5.3 points ahead of Trump on Election Day, but he won by just 2.4 points.
North Carolina
North Carolina is particularly interesting. It has been the focus of both campaigns over the past few weeks, and Democrats believe they can win the state for the first time since Barack Obama won it in 2008.
Trump also did well in the polls here four years ago and eight years ago, winning the state twice.
In 2020, Biden was polled 1.8 points ahead of Trump on Election Day and lost by 1.3 points. The Democrat never trailed in the final months, and was 1.2 points ahead at the same time.
President Trump has been ahead in all four polls since his debate with Harris last week, with consensus showing him ahead by a narrow 0.3 percentage point margin.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Harris is currently 3 points behind Biden in 2020 polls. She is 1.4 points ahead of Trump, while Biden is 4.8 points ahead of Trump.
On Election Day, Biden won by about 5 points over Trump, a margin of 1.2 points.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Trump has sharply reduced Harris’ recent lead.
As of 2020, Biden was ahead by 6.7%, but on Election Day, he ended up winning the polls by a whopping 8.4% over Trump. He won by just 0.8%.
This time, Harris is ahead by 1.6%, within the margin of error. Since August, Trump has slowly narrowed his lead over her.
Jointly published with permission At Center Square.
