In a notable change from a long-standing trend, new research shows that adult obesity rates in the U.S. will decline in 2023 for the first time in more than a decade. The study, which analyzed more than 47 million body mass index measurements from more than 16 million adults, suggests these changes may be linked to increased use of weight loss drugs and pandemic-related behavioral changes.
Posted in JAMA Health Forum | Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Researchers from Boston Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School examined national trends in body mass index (BMI) and obesity rates from 2013 to 2023. After years of steady increases, obesity rates are expected to plateau in 2022 and then decline slightly in 2023, according to the study. It could be a potential turning point in America’s obesity epidemic.
The study shows particularly notable declines in certain demographics and regions. The South, which has the highest rates of weight loss drug use, saw the largest declines. The researchers found that adults and women ages 66 to 75 also saw a significant decrease in obesity rates.
Dr. Benjamin Rader, a principal investigator in the Computational Epidemiology Laboratory at Boston Children’s Hospital, and his colleagues analyzed data from the Optum de-identified Market Clarity Data system, which includes both medical claims and electronic health records. Their analysis showed that the average population BMI increased continuously from 2013 to 2021, reached a plateau in 2022 at 30.24, and then decreased slightly to 30.21 in 2023.
Of particular interest in our findings relate to regional differences in the use of GLP-1RA drugs (e.g. semaglutide). The South had the highest proportion of patients receiving these medications at 6.0%, while the West had the highest proportion of patients receiving these drugs (3.4%). But researchers caution that drug dispensing rates do not necessarily reflect actual usage patterns.
vocabulary
- BMI (body mass index)
- A measurement calculated by dividing weight (kg) by the square of height (meters) and is used to classify weight status.
- GLP-1RA
- Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists – a class of drugs used for weight loss and diabetes management.
- obesity
- It is a medical condition defined as having a BMI of 30 or more.
Test your knowledge
When did the study first show a decline in U.S. obesity rates?
After stagnating in 2022, the first decline was observed in 2023.
What was the average BMI measurement in 2023?
The average population BMI in 2023 was 30.21.
Which regions have the highest use of GLP-1RA drugs and the greatest reductions in obesity rates?
The southern region had the highest GLP-1RA dispensing rate (6.0%) and the most notable decrease in obesity rates.
What are the main limitations of this study that may affect the interpretation of the results?
This study is limited by the potential for selection bias, as BMI recorded during medical visits may have skewed estimates. Additionally, medication dispensing rates do not necessarily reflect actual use, and results in the South may have been influenced by disproportionately high COVID-19 mortality rates in obese individuals.
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