From TradingEconomics on 10/25:
Consumer sentiment at the University of Michigan in the US was revised upward from the provisional value of 68.9 to 70.5 in October 2024, showing an upward trend for three consecutive months and reaching the highest level in six months. Both economic conditions (64.9 vs 62.7) and expectations (74.1 vs 72.9) were adjusted upward. This month’s increase was mainly due to a slight improvement in purchasing conditions for durable goods due to easing interest rates. The upcoming election appears to be exceeding consumer expectations. Overall, the percentage of consumers expecting President Harris to be elected decreased from 63% last month to 57%.
This is a slightly different interpretation from Esau. New York Times I had this topic. Below is a picture of the Michigan Sentiment Index with the Cummings-Tedeschi adjustment for the preliminary series and the implied adjustment for the final series.
Figure 1: UMich Consumer Sentiment (bold black, left scale), October Preliminary (gray +), Consumer Sentiment Cummings-Tedeschi (light blue, left scale), Cummings-Tedeschi adds final and preliminary intervals (blue +). Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson Fed News Sentiment (vermilion, right scale), source: University of Michigan, Cummings-Tedeschi; SF Fed.
If we take the adjustments literally, this is a picture compared to partisan group indicators (all unadjusted).
Figure 2: UMich Consumer Sentiment (bold black), Democratic (light blue), Independent (light green), Republican (red), and Cummings-Tedeschi overall sentiment add to the final vs. primary gap (blue +). Source: University of Michigan, Cummings-Tedeschi and author’s calculations.
Finally, the Cummings-Tedeschi adjustment makes the Michigan index more consistent with the Conference Board and Gallup measures.
Figure 3: Cummings-Tedeschi U.Michigan Sentiment (bold black, left scale), Conference Board Confidence (cyan, left scale), and Gallup Poll (red, right scale) adjusted for April-October. Sources: FRED, Cummings-Tedeschi, Conference Board, U.Michigan via Gallup.
