Written by Vivian Sequera, Mayela Armas, and Matt Spetalnick
CARACAS/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The flight of Venezuela’s former opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez has dashed much of the hope for political change, voters say, while longtime dictator Nicolas Maduro has brushed aside international criticism of his controversial July election results.
Election officials and Venezuela’s highest court said the July 28 vote had been won by Maduro, a socialist who has been in power since 2013. The opposition said tallies compiled by monitors showed a landslide victory for Gonzalez.
Threatened with arrest, Gonzalez fled Venezuela over the weekend, and several other Venezuelans are already following suit.
Remainers have largely given up hope for a transition, with post-election protests subsiding and punitive measures abroad yet to materialize.
“I thought there could be a change, but now I don’t know. I think we will follow in Cuba’s footsteps,” said Ender Lopez, a 56-year-old teacher in the central Venezuelan city of Valencia. His two children have already emigrated.
“Some people have faith in international diplomacy, but I don’t think they’ll do anything right now,” Lopez added.
More than 7.7 million people have left Venezuela in recent years, and many more are joining a powerful global migrant community.
“I’m looking for a better life,” said Alejandra Medina, a migrant who spent two nights sleeping on the ground with her sons, ages 4 and 2, in the Brazilian border town of Paracaima.
According to Brazil’s Federal Police, 12,325 Venezuelans arrived in Paracaima in August, up 8,050 from June.
shadow government
Former lawmaker and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who said last week the international community must do “much more,” urged countries on Monday to recognize Gonzalez as president-elect and said she would continue the fight for change in Spain, where she has sought asylum.
But Venezuela has done this before. Former opposition leader Juan Guaidó created a parallel government in 2019, supported by many Western democracies, based on claims that Maduro’s 2018 re-election was illegitimate.
The effort failed. Guaidó eventually fled to the United States, the opposition ended the shadow government, and diplomatic efforts shifted to parallel negotiations between the opposition and the government, and between the United States and the government.
Those talks resulted in an agreement on election conditions in Barbados last October, the release of dozens of Venezuelans and 10 Americans, and the temporary lifting of U.S. sanctions.
Detente was short-lived and broke down even before the elections, when the United States announced in April that it would reimpose restrictions on the oil industry in response to Maduro’s failure to deliver on his campaign promises.
U.S. officials have defended Washington’s recent cautious response and insisted that they are coordinating with regional and international partners on future actions.
Concerns about migration
But people familiar with the matter say Washington’s options are limited, and Venezuela is competing for foreign policy priorities and attention with the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The Biden administration is finalizing a list of Venezuelan officials and their families who would face individual sanctions and U.S. visa bans, but no official announcement has been made yet, the people said.
U.S. officials have privately expressed concern that the move could severely harm Venezuela’s already struggling economy and could lead to more migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. The issue of migration has become a hot topic in the fierce U.S. presidential campaign.
Responding to criticism that the United States is acting too slowly and that action now would be too little, too late, a White House National Security Council spokesperson reiterated the administration’s position on Monday, saying the United States is “considering a range of options.”
London-based investment bank BancTrust said in a report Monday that talks with Maduro are unlikely to take place until after the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5.
“If Maduro’s fall was imminent or negotiations for a transfer of power were underway, (Gonzalez) would not have left the country in our view,” he said.
Mariano de Alba, a Venezuelan lawyer and expert on international politics, said any talks would require sufficient pressure from within the Venezuelan government and military, which has long been a staunch supporter of Maduro.
He said there were concerns in diplomatic circles that “international pressure tools could ultimately have a negative impact,” adding that excessive external pressure could further unify governments.
Brazil’s president has traditionally enjoyed friendly relations with Maduro, but has ratcheted up his criticism of him in recent weeks.
The Venezuelan government on Saturday withdrew Brazil’s permission to represent Argentina’s interests in Venezuela, including by taking control of the diplomatic residence where six opposition figures were staying, drawing condemnation from Argentina and consternation from Brazil.
Brazilian diplomatic sources said Monday that Gonzalez’s resignation had weakened the opposition’s position.
“We understand why he had to leave,” the source added. “But it makes Maduro stronger.”
