Vijay Kedia on what to buy and what to avoid in Samvat 2081

So what is keeping you busy this Samvat year?

Vijay Kedia: This Samvat is also the same. What worked for you in the past will work for you in the future.

But are you confident in the story?

Vijay Kedia: Of course.

Tell our viewers a little bit about a stock that hasn’t performed at all, but you believe in the story.

Vijay Kedia: Yes, many stocks like Repro India, which is one of my biggest holdings, have not performed well in the last five years. Imagine that over 5 years. Even five years ago, the price was Rs 500. Even today the prices are the same. Likewise, Vaibhav Global, which is also one of the biggest parts of my portfolio, has not performed at all in the last three years. So it was separate 3 years ago like Vaibhav already multiplied by 10 times or something like that but that doesn’t matter. We’re still racing. So, you should compare your performance with the athletes you are running with, not with your past performance. Here’s how to evaluate yourself: So, I have a few more stocks like this. I have significant holdings in Repro and Vaibhav which have not performed.

So what were the results? What has been done is what we want to know from you. What results have you achieved? I think Atul auto did a good job for you. IndiGo has done it for you.

Vijay Kedia: Atul Auto is reasonably complete. Tejas Networks has not fared very well. It’s up 100% over the past year. There are so many stocks that are up 200%, 300%. So I’m still behind. So it’s okay.

But people also have a lot of FOMO, so does it matter if you lag behind others when you’re making 100%?

Vijay Kedia: I tell you, the race is not over yet. So I’m running a marathon. So at 5km you are faster and ahead of me, but the cricket match is not canceled until the race is over or the last player has played. So I’m still in the game. So I still have hope. So maybe we’ll cover it up next year.

No, I just want to ask if there are any interesting areas you would like to look into in more detail.

Vijay Kedia: No, whatever sector I have is an interesting sector. If they haven’t performed well in the past, I expect them to perform in the future and I would like to say that I am personally optimistic about Chinese stocks. I think China is the new story. China is a new theme, and I think Chinese stocks will do well in the future.

Because of valuation?

Vijay Kedia: Of course, it’s valuation. For 15 years they did nothing. Imagine that in 2008 the Hong Kong index was around 32,000 or 34,000. The Hong Kong index is still hovering around 22,000 or 20,000 and it’s been 14 years and we don’t know what 8 plus 9 is.

Would you allocate 5% of your capital to China? Are you that optimistic about China?

Vijay Kedia: Yes, I will. My portfolio?

That’s a big ask, allocating 5% of your overall portfolio to foreign markets, meaning you’re making a sizable bet.

Vijay Kedia: I would like to have a considerable amount. I want to invest.

So there are two types of ETFs in China. One is a country ETF that also includes financial stocks, and the other is a specific ETF that manufactures batteries.

Vijay Kedia: Yes, they are all mixed and listed in Hong Kong or somewhere.

So if you buy China, you are selling India. You like to always be fully invested. That’s what you’ve done for all the years I’ve known you. This means that if you want to invest in China, you will need to raise capital from somewhere or sell some stocks. So where do you sell it?

Vijay Kedia: So I sold some stocks. Some stakes have been adjusted. I quit my job this quarter.

Even though I am asking a straightforward and direct question, you are still maintaining the original quantity of indigo.

Vijay Kedia: yes. Yes, I am holding IndiGo. yes.

So your portfolio is in the public domain. Now, in any portfolio, stock companies do not follow a linear line. Some may pass the maturity curve. Some may experience downward curves in both price and revenue. There are two or three companies that you think are currently at an exciting stage of earnings growth where the next two or three years will be better than the last two or three years for your portfolio companies, and that incremental earnings growth will play a role. Do you think? ? I want to point out to our viewers why we ask about revenue and not price, because price is a function of market trends, technology, and momentum. Revenue is something we can talk about. Whether prices go up or down is a different story. Where will there be transformational change rather than incremental change, and where can we be confident of a performance recovery or performance reassessment over the next two to three years?

Vijay Kedia: Let me tell you as if I created an acronym called SHIFTT. Smile is a general term. SHIFTT is relevant in that field. So S stands for stock market. Any topic related to the stock market or SIP or exchange or depository or whatever because this is the beginning of the stock cult. I have said this on various platforms including roti, kapda, makaan, data and SIP. So, SIP is a new trend and it will grow by leaps and bounds.

So I think S stands for stock market or SIP or whatever you can call it and H stands for hospitals and hospitality. I watched the interview with Mr Puneet Chhatwal, Minister of Tourism and Ayesha.

So what does SHIFTT stand for? What does S stand for?

Vijay Kedia:S stands for stock market or SIP. And H stands for Hospital and Hospitality Industry and IF stands for Infrastructure. You might sell one company, but you have another company, and you might want to increase it, or you might buy another company. I don’t have any thoughts at the moment, but as I always say, India’s 10, 15, 30 trillion won economy is unimaginable and has no infrastructure. We are still at the beginning, double T, T stands for Tourism and single T stands for Telecommunications.

So what would you buy from a carrier? Tejas?

Vijay Kedia: I’m interested in that too. So I’ll just stick with that.

It goes back to the point that Avanne said that a lot of the investors we’ve talked to today are talking about energy transition as a big topic, real estate as well as the entire pharma space and renewable energy, which have been doing well. , energy transition. Are you not interested in digital and energy transition because it is the topic of the next decade, not just a few months or years?

Vijay Kedia: I don’t have any stocks in particular in mind for that sector. As you say, and secondly, I don’t invest in areas that are trendy, trends or areas that are widely known or popular in the market, like data centers. Everyone is talking about data centers or hydrogen or solar. And that. I’m not usually invested in such stories. Because by the time it got to me it had become very expensive and now everyone has some involvement in these stocks and all.

So, I have no idea and have no intention of investing in this field. Because I think that whatever company or field I currently own should do well. The story in this field is not over yet. This is what I feel. I may be wrong, but ultimately I will do what I believe.

So have you moved beyond Indian hotels and tourism?

Vijay Kedia: No, there are no Indian hotels. I have Mahindra Holiday. Unfortunately there are no Indian Hotels or even IndiGo.

Mahindra holds a 0.5% stake.

Vijay Kedia: Mahindra, yes, 1%.

Do you still have it?

Vijay Kedia: Yes, I have it. Mahindra Holidays, that’s right. The stock is not doing well and progress is slow.

So I just want to reiterate that even though we have been talking about stocks over the past year, there has been tremendous wealth creation in India. Property prices across India have risen by more than 20% on average and have risen by an average of 50% over the last three years. The current market capitalization of the real estate sector is between $8 and $9 trillion. Stock market, market capitalization of USD 5 trillion, 80% owned by investors who are Indian promoters and DII investors. So, in terms of ownership of wealth, it’s about $4 trillion, and we also have gold. $2 trillion or $3 trillion, we don’t know. But there’s definitely a 40% appreciation there.

India thus experienced a wealth effect the likes of which it had never seen before. Gold, real estate and now stocks. Wo kah rahe na buffet ho rakha hai abhi to, you can choose a buffet table. While we were talking at home, my mom said it was like how much the price of silver has risen. My wife said she had no idea how much diamond prices had fallen.

Now we can see it on Titan. But now which end of the asset class allocation do you want to bet on? Are there any other big changes you would like to see in wealth distribution, like you did in China? It’s not just stocks. For example, you can buy gold, buy Bitcoin, buy real estate, etc. Is there anything big you can share with our viewers that you don’t think is fair?

Vijay Kedia: No, not in any meaningful way. I might have about 2% of my portfolio of value in gold and maybe 1-2% in silver. And real estate accounts for about 5-7% of my portfolio. So I just want to stick with that. I am also bullish on gold and silver. And Bitcoin also cannot be traded or invested in.

But wo dil jo hai wo wala din fir bhi hai Hindustani wo Equity ke saath mein hi hai, wo gold aur silver chahe wo same return de, in the last 20 years, as everyone says, gold has given similar returns to Nifty, but what’s funny? ? You live for the climax.

Until and unless you take risks, what is the meaning of life? You need it, right? So the kick is in equity. So, I am not one to sit back and invest in gold even if it gives 100% better or similar returns. Then I will become inactive. Then I won’t be able to enjoy that money.