We now know if global warming has delayed the next glacier era.

Without climate change due to human beings, the earth may have jumped into another ice age within 11,000 years. This long -term prediction of the “natural” climate of the earth changes the amount of solar energy in which a new analysis of the shape of the track is shaken and the slope of the axis reaches the earth.

For millions of years, this track vibration, known as the Milankovitch cycle, has brought the earth into and out of the glacier every 41,000 years. But in the last 800,000 years, these glacier cycles, even the glacier era, have occurred every 100,000 years. The term glacier can be used to speak whenever there is ice in the polish of the earth, but now it usually means a wide range of glaciers.

The ambiguity of the record when the ice sheet progressed and retreated did not mean that the change in orbital change could not explain how it was involved in drawing longer.

If the previous study attempts to connect the change of orbital with a certain period, such as the beginning of the glacial era. Stephen Barker His colleagues at Cardiff University in England took a new tack. They saw the overall pattern of the ice age, also called the ice age. This has allowed me to connect the change of track with ice changes despite the fuzzy castle of ice records over the last million years.

They seem to follow the direct rules of this 100,000 years. In the last 900,000 years, all the gaps have occurred as the earth’s axis was shaken at the distant point of the earth, and the planet was tilted closer toward the sun along the most circular stage of the track.

This combines the three aspects of the earth’s orbit (car wash, angle and eccentric) to create a 100,000 -year glacier cycle. “Since 900,000 years ago, this simple rules predict each major glacier end case. This is really easy to predict us, ”he says.

Based on the rule, based on the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions, we can expect that the next crossing period we are now known as HOLOCENE will begin for about 66,000 years from now. But Barker said, “Before there was an ice age, you can start.”

Holocene’s eligibility and car wash stages suggest that the glacier will proceed between 4300 and 11,100. We may be living with the onset of the next ice age. Barker said, “Of course it’s just a natural scenario.

Since the Industrial Revolution is expected to cause sufficient warming to interfere with this long -term glacial cycle, CO2 of more than 1.5 trillion tons has been released into the atmosphere.

Barker said, “The amount we already put in the atmosphere is so big that it will take hundreds to thousands of years to take it out through the natural process. But he says that more research is needed to define the earth’s future natural environment in more detail.

It is consistent with the initial modeling, which suggests that the level of carbon dioxide due to artificial discharge will increase, and the next glacier period will interfere for hundreds of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. Andrey Ganopolski In Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

But he says that even in the atmosphere, even the CO2 level before industrialization can be enough enough to delay the development of ice until 50,000 years. This is due to the unusually unpredictable way of unusually small orbital change and the earth’s reaction to such changes.