What Trump Can and Probably Can’t Do to Reverse U.S. Climate Policy

What Trump Can and Probably Can’t Do to Reverse U.S. Climate Policy

Written by Gautam Jain & American Dialogue

The following essay is reprinted with permission from: conversationAn online publication covering the latest research.

As the United States prepares for the incoming Trump administration, one area that will clearly be in the incoming president’s crosshairs is climate policy.

Although he has not released a formal climate agenda, he is following the playbook that Donald Trump last worked on in the Oval Office and his Frequent complaints about clean energy It gives us a clue as to what is going to happen.

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Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement

In 2017, less than six months after assuming his first presidency, Trump officially announced that they were leaving USA in the Paris Climate Agreement– A 2015 international agreement signed by nearly all countries pledging to work to curb temperature rises and other climate change impacts.

The bigger but underestimated risk this time is that Trump will not stop at the Paris Agreement.

In addition to pulling the United States out of the Paris Agreement again, Trump may also seek to withdraw the United States. From the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 1992 treaty is the foundation of international climate talks. Withdrawal from the treaty would make it nearly impossible for the next administration to rejoin the UNFCCC treaty. Because that would require the consent of two-thirds of the Senate.

The repercussions of such steps will be felt around the world. The Paris Agreement is not legally binding. Based on trust and leadershipThe positions taken by the world’s largest economies influence the will of other countries.

It will also hand over leadership on climate change to China.

There has been a significant increase in U.S. funding to help other countries expand clean energy and adapt to climate change during the Biden administration. First U.S. International Climate Finance Plan To help, we have provided $11 billion in 2024. Emerging and Developing Economies. And America’s Promise International Development Finance Corporation soars It reached nearly $14 billion during the first two years of President Biden’s term, and $12 billion during the four years of President Trump’s term. Biden also promised $3 billion to the United Nations. Green Climate Fund.

Under President Trump, all of these efforts will likely be scaled back again.

Targeting clean energy may not be so simple

But Trump may be less successful in other areas.

He voiced: withdraw clean energy policy. But it may be harder for him to eliminate the Biden administration’s massive investments in clean energy, which are tied to much-needed investments in infrastructure and manufacturing in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Since both are laws passed by Congress, Trump would need a majority in both houses to repeal them.

Repealing this law will be difficult even if Republicans fight for a third round to control both the House and Senate and the White House. This is because the benefits of the law are flowing to many people. red note. Trump’s Allies in the Oil and Gas Industry You can also take advantage of the law’s tax credits for carbon capture, advanced biofuels, and hydrogen.

However, it is almost certain that the Inflation Reduction Act will be amended, if not repealed. A tax credit for consumers buying electric vehicles is likely on the chopping block, as are stronger EPA regulations. exhaust pipe pollution Standards make battery-powered cars uneconomical for many people.

Trump might be like that too Delay the work of the Department of Energy’s Office of Loan Programs.This has helped boost several clean energy industries. Again, this is not surprising. He did so in his first term. Except the impact would be greater considering the office’s lending capacity has improved since then. Soaring to over $200 billionThanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. Only about a quarter of the total has been spent so far, so there is a rush to speed things up before the new government takes office in January.

Drill, baby, drill?

Trump talks too Increased fossil fuel productionAnd he will almost certainly take steps to boost the industry through deregulation and open up more federal lands for drilling. But prospects for significantly increasing oil and gas production appear bleak.

The United States already produces more crude oil than any other country. Oil and gas companies Buying back shares and paying dividends I wouldn’t do that if I saw a better investment opportunity.

The futures curve indicates future declines in oil prices. Slowing demand due to economic weakness If Trump continues his threat to impose tariffs on all imports, there is a risk of lower profitability.

Trump will likely attempt a rollback Climate policy related to fossil fuels and emissionsThis is Main causes of climate changejust like he did Dozens of policies from his first government.

This includes eliminating the new federal government. Charges for Methane Emissions This is the first attempt by the U.S. government to impose a fee or tax on greenhouse gas emissions – from certain facilities. Methane is the main component of natural gas and a powerful greenhouse gas.

Trump did the same promised to support New liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal approved The Biden administration attempted to suspend And then Still trying to slow down.

Mayors have a say in the future of clean energy

Trump is one of the clean energy sources The likely successor is nuclear power..

Despite his criticism of wind and solar power, investment in renewable energy is likely to continue to grow due to market dynamics, especially as onshore wind and utility-scale solar projects grow. More cost-effective than coal or gas.

Nonetheless, the pace of investment is likely to slow due to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and regulatory and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration. The expected inflationary impact of his economic policies will likely negate the recession. Benefit from lower capital costs This was expected to happen as the central bank lowers interest rates this year. This is an outcome that our warming planet cannot bear.

This article was originally published on: conversation. read original article.