As a regular testing ground for the Formula 1 world, the team knows Circuit de Catalunya – Barcelona like the back of its hand.
However, the 4.6km track still presents engineers with complex aerodynamic challenges. The long main straights require a low-drag setup for maximum speed to facilitate overtaking, but the track also features a mix of high-speed corners and tight chicanes.
Therefore, an appropriate aero compromise that takes into account the team’s objectives in qualifying (an important factor given Barcelona’s overtaking challenge) and on match day is important.
The variety of Circuit de Catalunya’s layout has historically implied that if a car performs well on the track, it should perform well everywhere.
Now that the MCL38 has reached an exciting level of versatility, McLaren will be hoping that this old lesson holds true after Lando Norris’ impressive performance in Saturday’s shootout saw him secure his second career pole in F1. Max Verstappen’s 0.020 seconds.
Barcelona’s speed trap readings show Norris was just over 3 km/h slower on the straight than Verstappen’s Red Bull. This shows how well balanced and aero efficient his McLaren is for the rest of the track.
It’s unclear whether George Russell benefited from the traction to set the fastest straight-line speed in qualifying, but Mercedes in general is certainly a force to be reckoned with in Sunday’s race, as evidenced by Lewis Hamilton’s strong third quarter performance.
But as usual on technically demanding tracks, tire management will inevitably have an impact on the race. Although Sunday’s forecast for cloudy skies and cold temperatures may mean it may be less of a factor than expected.
This will allow the team to base their strategy around a two-stop race, which is the fastest option, while making good use of Pirelli’s soft compound, a tire that is much more difficult to manage in extreme heat conditions.
“The fastest strategy on paper is to use two sets of C3 (soft) and one set of C2 (medium),” said Pirelli F1 boss Mario Isola.
“You can rule out a one-stop strategy because it’s too slow, but the idea of four three-stop races isn’t absurd because it’s only a few seconds slower than two stops.
“How the drivers manage their tire performance during each period will also be very important. The team worked very carefully in the final free practice sessions.”
Despite Norris’ pole performance, Verstappen surpassed our predictions for Sunday’s race. But while no one expected a runaway win from the Dutchman in Barcelona, with Norris and the Mercedes drivers hot on the heels of the Red Bull charger, Verstappen surpassed our predictions for Sunday’s race.
Ferrari? Since the SF-24 lacks downforce compared to its competitors, it is unlikely that the Italian team will reach the podium unless something unexpected happens.
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