Kato Institute A new poll and report has recently been released. The public opinion on trade is detailed. The headline numbers are very encouraging: 63% of Americans want to increase trade with other countries. There are some details to discuss, but in general, Americans do not have the same protectionist tendencies as politicians. Again, this is encouraging because it does not suggest a broad departure from the trade liberalism that characterized the post-World War II era, at least in the public mind.
What’s interesting is that these numbers come despite Americans’ skepticism about the impact of trade on jobs and wages. About 39 percent of respondents said they were concerned that trade would reduce the number of jobs, 37 percent said it would reduce the quality of jobs, and 39 percent said it would reduce wages. In fact, 80 percent said they were concerned that trade had hurt some U.S. industries. Despite these concerns, Americans reject protectionism. Between two-thirds and four-fifths of Americans would reject tariffs that would raise prices even slightly (there’s a range, since the question is asked in many different ways). About half (48 percent) of Americans would reject tariffs that are lobbied for by businesses or industry groups.
There are many other interesting anecdotes in the report, but these instances of skepticism are a great source of inspiration for the development of the classical liberal movement. Education seems to be a way to reduce skepticism about trade and build broader support. Of course, education can be formal (in fact, one of the graphs in the report finds that support for trade is highly correlated with formal educational attainment). But with the proliferation of blogs, YouTube, and other low-cost media, education can also include informal ones.
And that’s why I write. Writing blog posts, editorials, podcasts, etc., is an important 21st century way to convey information and help people overcome skepticism. It’s very difficult to correct misconceptions, especially when it comes to trade. Concepts like comparative advantage are very difficult to understand and explain. But Americans seem to have a good instinct about trade. As a scholar, I think it’s a worthwhile endeavor to help Americans understand that instinct.
PS: “If trade is so popular, why is protectionism on the platform of both major political parties?” The report answers that question as well. Only 1% of respondents said that trade and globalization were their “top three” political issues. The adoption of protectionism by both Democrats and Republicans is a classic public choice outcome. It is politically unpopular, but a minority of people find it important. Politicians can adopt the position, gain the votes of special interest groups who strongly support it, and not risk losing their votes. Other issues, such as inflation, jobs, and immigration, all play a bigger role for voters. Helping voters understand the connections between trade and these issues will also help counter protectionist movements.
John Murphy is an assistant professor of economics at Nicholls State University.
