Uncertainty in text analysis and consumer surveys:
The first economic policy uncertainty:
Figure 1: Figure 1. EPU (blue) and 7 -day central moving average (red). Source: Policyuncety.com and the author’s calculation.
Next, consider the expected inflation and uncertainty for one year of the newly released NY Fed.
Figure 2: Figure 2. A year earlier, inflation (blue) and related uncertainty (brown) central value. Source: NY Fed.
Third, more interesting is how the “better off” has evolved a year earlier than the trust of the U.MICHIGAN economic sentiment and meeting committee.
Figure 3: Michigan Survey Central Central Central Expectations (Blue, Left Size) and NY FED Survey “Better in 1 year” survey (Brown, right size). Source: U.MICH. Through the calculation of Fred, NY Fed and the author.
