Here Yves. Below, Andrew Korybko will examine whether Russia will take the next step in the war that continues to move west. From a military perspective, logically, SUMY, at least 2010 election results, Russian -friendly. But Ukraine can claim that you can start a bone -having a customsk stunt and put it on the menu. The second reason is that the progress to Sumy is in the close range of Russia. Zelensky may not be enough to require new elections, but the alternative way to get out of Dodge is the “asylum” gambit mentioned earlier that the UK and the EU can support them. It would still have a stage for new elections (I think Lada can call them, experts absent), Jellen Ski and his allies are kvetting, but they can’t do that much.
The second question of “what Russia is doing next” is an obvious discomfort to capture the current major cities. Russia is waiting before attempting to bypass them, to block/or to clear and occupy the Ukrainian military before waiting for the retreat or collapse of the Ukrainian army. I did not see the map. It was the second largest city in Ukraine, and the population before the war was about 1.5 million people. It seems to be a priority because many Russians are high and surrounded by Russia.
And if you talk about buffers… . When the West began to use long -range missiles, Lavrov’s foreign minister pointed out that it was effective to increase the amount of Russian territory in order to ensure that it was considered Russia, including four disputes in Ukraine before 2022. This question became a recursive and Lavrov did not solve the problem. For example, if it can be used to the west of the longest missile, it means that a 300 km wide safety area is needed in the western border of Russia and the new Russians of four Ostlates. But is it DMZ? What is the people, community and productive companies in that safe zone? Even if they are “dilatorized,” Ukraine, Vanderlight Rebels or aggressive EU members will still be vulnerable to attack if they want to continue fighting.
And the Russian idea of the proper width of such an area is probably more than 500 km. If the memory is properly provided, the longest western missile is a German bull position with a 500 km longer. But Germany’s Bundestag refused to approve Ukraine’s request for use twice (Prime Minister Scholz supported the second Nein). However, Germany currently has a Uber-Hawk Prime Minister in Freidrich Merz, which can succeed in approving the bullet delivery to Ukraine.
Finally, it is strange that Korybko Parrots see the Western Story Story’s patented Western story without warning, such as Europe’s “pumping Ukraine full of weapons”. Europe has produced weapons cache and does not interfere with indigenous production capacity. You will have to procure weapons in the cancer market. It is necessary to procure weapons in the cancer market, which does not work well when purchasing grain peels or when trying to buy the United States. Korybko seems to be unusual for Putin Russian officials to treat Russia’s interests in the Western duality and hostile intentions, and to treat peace process as Russian interests (see Judge Naples, Larry Johnson, other spokesman, or other spine coutures. Just before Trump, Putin’s remarks just before calling the RSPP parliament’s pleanary section:
Sanctions are not temporary or target measures. They make up the mechanism of systematic and strategic pressure on our country. Regardless of global development or shift in international order, our competitors will try to limit Russia to constraints and reduce economic and technical capabilities.
Moreover, so -called Western elites tried to ruin this confrontation properly, but now they don’t have to worry about their appearance and don’t seem to intend. They not only threaten Russia routinely with new sanctions, but also constantly stirs these packages. Even the architect gains the impression that even architects have lost their tracking and goals.
Here the Treasury formed this. I trust 28,595 sanctions for individuals and corporations. This exceeds a significant margin that combines all sanctions imposed on all other countries.
Even if there are some gestures from the side-they suggest something to lift up or easily-we can expect other methods to pressure and throw a spanner, as in the case of the well-known Jackson-Vanik modification. The original Soviet Union was no longer present, and the relationship between Russia and the United States was probably more likely. But the amendment continued to be implemented. And when it seemed to be abolished, it was actually replaced by another limited tool for Russia. Recall this: abolished and then replaced.
Sanctions and restrictions are the reality of the new development stage where the world’s economy began. The global competitive struggle has been strengthened as it assumes more and more elaborate and uncompromising forms.
Thus, in front of our eyes, a new spiral of economic competition is being developed, and in these conditions, it is almost embarrassing to recall the norms and rules of the World Trade Organization, which is hardly promoted by the West. once… when? When this rule was advantageous to them … they became disadvantageous and everything began to change. And all these negotiations have stopped. And in fact, no one needs anymore.
This is clear, and I emphasized it repeatedly. It is impossible to return to existing conditions.
Therefore, Russia will continue to prosecute conflict. The only question is how far from the method.
Andrew Korybko, a US political analyst based in Moscow, specializes in a new Cold War. He received a Ph.D. Mgimo, This is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published His website
If diplomacy fails, it can be the only way to ensure Ukraine’s demilitarization.
that beginning Russian–Us “new detente“That was not It leads to a ceasefire During the latest period Putin–erase callTherefore, it means a hot stage Ukrainian disputeIf KIEV agrees, the attack on the energy infrastructure has been proposed, but it continues. Russia is currently in a crisis Pushing The Russian Kursk and Ukrainian defensive areas, and the southwestern Donbas Front saw the Russian army. Approach the door of the DNIEPROPETROVSK area.
President Putin will soon face the option of fate to be limited to four former Ukrainian regions, which the Russian ground campaign voted to join Russia in September 2022, or to include SUMY, DNIEPROPETROVSK and/or (once again) Kharkov. The second scenario is attractive. This is because Russia can develop the goal of completely capturing the entire area where Russia travels around Donbass and/or Zaporozhye.
The precedent of doing so is achieved Promotion to Kharkov last MayAbovementeded DniePropetrovsk aimed to achieve what can be achieved by Zaporozhye, but it was quickly enacted and failed to achieve its intended goal. Since the battlefield condition has been a lot of changes since then, it may have the opportunity to have a domino effect if it is relatively successful even from the SUMY area that is far from the dispute territory.
If Russia develops simultaneously with all three, Kharkov and DniePropetrovsk, Ditto is at risk of greatly developing one of them or even creating a Trump. I think it is a mistake The Putin was just living with their conversation and not true about peace. The perception then can cause excess reactions to see him. Strictly implement secondary sanctions Russian energy to inflict a tremendous financial blow to Kremlin and withdraw all the stops of Ukrainian armed.
nevertheless, “valid“If Trump fails the conversation, there is still a risk of assuming that Trump can be raised to“ expand to S Calate ”, but Putin still tries to persuade Putin, but Putin is. Competent pragmatist Therefore, we oppose the great danger. In other words, they can act more boldly by insisting that more earth’s interests can ultimately be necessary to force Ukraine to force peace on Russian terms.
Apart from the motives mentioned above, this series is expected to ignore Trump by pumping Ukraine with Ukraine even in the United States. Cut it againThis will lead to a ceasefire for Kiyf’s disadvantages. Thus, Russia’s only realistic will is to extend Ukrainian demilitarized campaigns to SUMY, DNIEPROPETROVSK and/or Kharkov.
In this memo, this will develop a proposed goal to create a demilitarized “trans-nipper” area north of the territory, east of the river and Russia claims to be its own. here. All that leads to this scenario is natural that Trump will not be able to expand to S Calate, or that this will not interfere with Russian expanded ground campaigns and that Europeans will not be traditionally intervened. But none of them can be taken for granted, so it’s a great danger.
For this reason, Putin can continue its safety by limiting the Russian ground campaign to four Ukrainian areas that Moscow claims, but can approve small -scale developments as adjacent areas by case. They can be approved for Ukrainian soldiers to pursue the next major fortress in Sumy, DniePropetrovsk and/or Kharkov.
Trump is doing his best to force Ukraine as a concessiony to feel “seeking a face” when Russia causes innovation and steam rolls to inform Russia’s maximum land escalation domination to forcing Russia’s ground escalation domination to inform Russia’s dominance of Ukrain. Will. This kind of “gesture of goodness” is different from the previous one in that Russia will continue to develop as Russia will continue to negotiate instead of withdrawing as before.
Similarly, Russia will also exercise self -control because it can also cause the US excessive response that can dangerous the peace process. As long as Russia’s intentions are delivered to the United States in advance, they must be able to manage all escalations. This approach is still involved in some risks Generally careful putin In order to conclude that the advantage of changing the game potentially is worth it, you can feel comfortable enough with a decrease in probability.
