The United Nations and other international organizations are hoping for four more years of President Donald Trump. Before becoming president for the first time, Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that the United Nations, made up of 193 member countries, is “just a club where people come together to talk and have a good time.” ”
During his first term, Trump cut off funding for U.N. health and family planning agencies, withdrew from the U.N.’s cultural body and highest human rights body, and flaunted the World Trade Organization (WTO) rulebook to criticize China and long-time U.S. allies. Tariffs were raised. The United States is the largest single donor to the United Nations, paying 22% of its regular budget.
Trump’s position on the world body began to take shape this week with his choice of Republican lawmakers. Ellis Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, New York
Stefanik, the fourth-ranking member of the House of Representatives, last month called for a “complete reevaluation” of U.S. funding for the United Nations and an end to support for the Palestine Refugee Agency (UNRWA). President Joe Biden paused for a moment. Funding was halted after UNRWA fired several staff suspected of involvement in the attacks in the Gaza Strip. October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack.
Let’s take a look at what Trump 2.0 could mean for global organizations.
A ‘theater’ for a conservative agenda.
Speculation about Trump’s future policies has already become a source of contention in Washington and beyond, and it is not always easy to read signals on issues important to the United Nations.
For example, Trump once called climate change a hoax and supported the fossil fuel industry. I stand with Elon Musk who cares about the environment. Although his first administration funded a furious effort to find a COVID-19 vaccine, he Anti-vaccination activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“What’s interesting is that President Trump doesn’t have a fixed view on the United Nations,” said Richard Gowan, UN secretary-general of the International Crisis Group think tank.
Gowan predicted that Trump would not see the world body as a place to transact serious political business, but would instead use it as a stage to pursue a conservative global social agenda.
There are clues from his first term. Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. And then I would do it again After President Joe Biden rejoined.
Trump also had America Leave UNESCO, a cultural and educational institution. And the UN-backed Human Rights Council is said to be biased against Israel. Biden recently went back to both. Decided not to seek a second consecutive term At the council.
Trump cut funding to the United Nations population agency for reproductive health services, claiming it was funding abortion. UNFPA said it did not take a position on abortion rights, and the United States again joined.
He had no interest in multilateralism (nations working together to solve global challenges) during his first term. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called it the “cornerstone” of the United Nations.
A new ‘Cold War’ world?
The world is a different place than when Trump took office in 2017 and called for “America First.” middle east, Ukraine And the means. As North Korea’s nuclear arsenal increases, concerns are growing. Iran’s rapidly developing nuclear program.
The UN Security Council, increasingly divided between veto-wielding permanent members Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, has made no progress in resolving these issues. In war zones and conflict zones around the world, respect for international law has been shattered.
John Bolton, who served as national security adviser in the Trump White House, said, “It’s really a return to the Cold War era.”
he said Russia and China are “flying” Iran, which is causing instability in the Middle East, Helped Russia’s war in Ukraine. He said there was little chance of a deal at the conference on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or resolving conflicts involving Russia or China.
Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said he expected Stefanik to have a “more difficult time” because of the variety of problems facing the Security Council.
“I was quite sleepy during Trump’s first term, but I won’t be sleepy at all during Trump’s second term,” he said.
The Security Council has taken a helpless stance against Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022 due to Russia’s veto. And America’s support for Israel prevented it from adopting a resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Gowan of the Crisis Group said Republicans in Congress are “angry” about UN criticism of Israel’s policies in Gaza and will urge President Trump “to impose severe budget cuts on the UN.” He said. He will do that to please his base.
May affect the work of the United Nations
The day-to-day support activities of global institutions also face uncertainty.
In Geneva, home to many U.N. agencies focused on issues including human rights, immigration, communications and weather, some diplomats advised caution and said Trump had generally maintained humanitarian aid funding during his first term.
Trade was a different matter. Trump circumvented World Trade Organization (WTO) rules by imposing tariffs on steel and other goods from both allies and competitors. Handle his new threat well. 60% tariff imposed on Chinese productsIt could turn global trade upside down.
Although international structures have some safeguards and impulses built into them, other ideological confrontations can be expected.
In a subtle reference to Trump’s victory Azerbaijan UN climate conference“The clean energy revolution is here,” Guterres said. “No organization, no company, no government can stop this.”
Allison Chartrechian, director of Cornell University’s AI Climate Lab, said global progress on addressing climate change is “moving slowly” thanks to the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but Trump’s election “will certainly create a ripple effect.” . “Ripple through the system.”
Chatrchyan, who attended the COP29 climate summit, wrote that “it is very likely that President Trump will withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement again, but according to the provisions of the treaty, this can only take effect after four years.” email. “The American leadership we desperately need will be gone.”
When millions of people around the world were sick and dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Trump criticized the World Health Organization (WHO) and cut off funding.
Trump’s second term will not necessarily be similar to his first, said Gian Luca Burci, a former WHO legal adviser. “It could be more extreme, but it could also be more strategic because Trump learned a system he didn’t know much about in his first term.”
If the United States were to leave the WHO, it would “open a whole Pandora’s box,” said Burci, a visiting professor of international law at the Geneva Graduate Institute. “The entire organization is holding its breath for a variety of reasons.”
But both Gowan and Bolton agree that there is one United Nations event Trump is unlikely to miss. It is the annual gathering of world leaders held at the General Assembly, where Trump garnered the world’s attention.
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