When thinking about the risks of climate change, which are closely linked to global energy consumption, it is useful to have a basis in basic facts. Here I provide some figures from the annual report. World Energy Statistics Review (June 2024). The transition to non-carbon energy sources at the global level is more limited than many believe. In addition, carbon emissions and coal production are becoming more concentrated outside the US and Europe as other parts of the world economy develop. Despite all the talk about US and EU-based policies to promote non-carbon energy, the consequences of global carbon emissions will be determined elsewhere.
As a starting point, here are the world’s “primary” energy sources (i.e. electricity generation, transportation, industrial use, everything combined) in 2023: Of the 620 exajoules of primary energy worldwide in 2023, 81% will come from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas). Non-carbon sources make up the remaining 19%. If we focus on “other renewables,” excluding nuclear and solar, they make up 8% of total output. If the goal is to replace fossil fuels without (significantly) expanding nuclear and hydro, “other renewables” will need to increase by more than a factor of 10 to meet existing energy needs. Of course, a factor of 10 won’t be enough, because billions of people in low- and middle-income countries are desperate to consume more energy, not just replace their existing fossil fuel use.
It is true that more than 60% of global energy consumption already takes place outside the high-income OECD countries. Here is a regional breakdown. Also note that over the past decade, energy consumption growth has been near zero in the US and negative in Western Europe, but increasing in Africa, India and China.
Here’s a similar chart, but it’s per capita energy consumption, not total energy consumption. As you can see, the world average per capita energy consumption is 77 gigajoules. The average American consumes 277 gigajoules, which is more than three times the world average. But the average per capita energy consumption in Africa is 21 gigajoules, the average per capita energy consumption in India is 39 gigajoules, and the average per capita energy consumption in Latin America is 58 gigajoules. It seems possible that developing countries could find ways to improve their standards of living without consuming US levels of energy, but it seems impossible without significantly increasing their per capita energy consumption.
The report provides an analysis of the different sources of primary energy, noting only that coal use is increasing globally.
Looking more closely, China accounts for 51.8% of global coal production, India 11.1%, and Indonesia 8.5%. Coal production is growing in all three countries. Meanwhile, the United States accounts for 5.8% of global coal production, and Western Europe 4.8%, and coal production in both the United States and Europe has declined by about 5% per year over the past decade. In fact, News reports say China’s coal expansion continues, despite its announced clean energy goals..
Given this backdrop, it is perhaps not shocking that global carbon emissions will hit an all-time high in 2023.
Breaking down these totals, 31.9% of global carbon emissions in 2023 will come from China, while 8% of global emissions will come from India. The Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, Australia, Indonesia, and South Korea, already accounts for 53.7% of global carbon emissions, and total emissions in the region have grown by an average of 2% per year over the past decade. Meanwhile, the United States will account for 13.2% of global carbon emissions in 2023 (with total emissions decreasing by an average of 1.2% per year over the past decade), while Western Europe will account for 10.1% of global carbon emissions in 2023 (with total emissions decreasing by an average of 2.2% per year over the past decade).
At this point, it is common to note that historically high-income countries have been much more carbon-intensive today. This is true, but when looking ahead to efforts to reduce global carbon emissions, this is not particularly relevant. Global efforts to reduce carbon emissions will not succeed unless they focus on the largest emitters today and provide cost-effective pathways to higher energy use and higher living standards for low-income people around the world.
